2025 Kentucky Derby: The Long Shot Dark Horses to Keep Your Eyes On

The Kentucky Derby is not just a race—it’s an event. The hats, the mint juleps, the roar of the crowd. But beyond the favorites and all the fanfare, there’s something even more exciting: The surprises. The chaos. The horses no one sees coming.

Every year, a few underdogs rise up and steal the show, and 2025 might be no different.

Sure, names like Journalism are hogging the headlines. But the real buzz? It’s building behind the scenes. Comeback stories. Breakout stars. Horses flying under the radar—ones bettors and racing fans can’t stop talking about in forums, chats, and late-night debates.

So, pull up a chair, grab your favorite Derby snack (seriously, who doesn’t love a little Kentucky bourbon caramel popcorn?), and let’s chat about the dark horses who might just make this year’s Derby a race to remember.

The Odds Aren’t Everything—But They Do Tell a Story

Now, we all know the favorites get most of the attention, but there’s always room for that wild, unexpected twist.

The Kentucky Derby is as much about surprises as it is about tradition. And while the odds makers have their list of top contenders (looking at you, Journalism), sometimes the true stars of the race are the ones who nobody saw coming.

One thing you’ll notice is the chatter around Journalism, a horse that’s become the betting favorite in recent weeks. He’s been lighting up the prep races, showing off some serious speed and stamina, and, naturally, everyone’s putting their money on him.

But here’s the thing: racing forums are split. Some fans are all in, convinced this colt is the one to beat.

Others? They’re a little more skeptical, wondering if his recent win was a fluke or if he’s just another overhyped contender. It’s creating a pretty fun debate. Does that make sense?

But here’s the real deal: while Journalism might be the talk of the town, it’s the other horses—the ones who aren’t in the spotlight—that could make this Derby unforgettable.

Read our how to read betting odds guide for a full breakdown on how odds work.

Horse #1 – Sandman: The Sleeper Pick

If you’re the type of person who loves a good long shot, then Sandman is the name you need to know.

At 8-1 odds, this colt is stirring up a lot of buzz across the betting communities. On paper, he might not look like the obvious choice, but there’s something about him that’s got people talking.

He’s been popping up in nearly every Derby futures discussion lately. People are all over Reddit swapping tips and predictions, and Sandman keeps getting mentioned as a potential surprise.

What’s the appeal? Well, some say it’s his strong late-season form, while others point to his ability to sneak up on the pack when it counts. You know how sometimes, in the last few seconds of a race, a horse comes from way behind and surprises everyone?

That’s the kind of momentum Sandman is building. He’s definitely one to watch.

Horse #2 – Barnes: Baffert’s Comeback Colt

Here’s a twist: Bob Baffert, the famed trainer who’s been a staple at the Derby for years, is back. After a three-year suspension, Baffert is now eligible to saddle horses for the 2025 Derby.

And while some people are still holding a grudge over the whole Medina Spirit controversy (let’s not relive that drama), there’s no denying that Baffert knows how to win at Churchill Downs.

Enter Barnes, a colt that Baffert’s been bringing along slowly but surely. It’s still early days, but you can already feel the anticipation building. Will Baffert’s return shake up the Derby, or will it be a case of too little, too late? People have strong opinions on both sides.

Some fans are all for his return, arguing that a Derby without Baffert feels incomplete. Others, though, are more hesitant, given the drama surrounding his suspension. Either way, Barnes could be the horse that ends up stealing the spotlight.

Horse #3 – Tiztastic: Louisiana’s Big Surprise

Remember Tiztastic? Yeah, that name is definitely one to remember. This colt pulled off a huge upset at the Louisiana Derby, a victory that earned him a spot at the Kentucky Derby.

Talk about shaking things up! Before that, Tiztastic was pretty much flying under the radar. But after his breakout performance, he’s been a hot topic among racing fans.

What makes Tiztastic so exciting is that he came out of nowhere. He wasn’t even on many people’s Derby radar until that race. But now? People are buzzing.

Could Tiztastic be the horse that finally ends Louisiana’s Derby drought? Racing communities are definitely excited to see what he can do at the big dance. It’s safe to say this colt has earned his place in the conversation—and at 20-1 odds, he could deliver a shocking result.

Horse #4 – Sovereignty: The Underdog with Momentum

If you haven’t heard about Sovereignty, you might want to start paying attention. After a dominant victory at the Fountain of Youth Stakes, this colt has quickly moved up the ranks and is now being considered a legitimate challenger for the Derby crown.

At the moment, his odds are rising fast, and he’s being discussed more and more as a potential Derby winner.

What sets Sovereignty apart is his ability to handle pressure. He doesn’t get rattled, and he can come through in the most high-stress situations. You know the saying: “Pressure makes diamonds”? Well, if Sovereignty is any indication, the pressure of Derby day could bring out the best in him.

Plus, he’s starting to pick up some steam with fans and bettors alike. Could he be the dark horse that delivers the knockout punch?

So, Who Are You Betting On?

Alright, my friend, now it’s your turn: who are you watching in the 2025 Kentucky Derby? Are you all about the favorites, or do you find yourself rooting for one of these dark horses?

Let me know in the comments below or hit me up on social media. We’re all in this together—may the best horse win! And hey, remember to enjoy the race (and the hats).

Happy Derby season, y’all! 🏇🐎🎩